By William C. Brainard, George L. Perry
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Additional info for Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2005 (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)
This second relation also implies a negative relation between net debt and the exchange rate. 7 This raises the question of the stability of the system. The system is (locally saddle point) stable if, as drawn in ﬁgure 1, the portfolio balance locus is steeper than the current account balance locus. S. net debt. This increase has two effects on the current account deﬁcit, and thus on the change in net debt: it increases interest payments, but it also leads, through the portfolio balance relation, to a lower exchange rate and thus a decrease in the trade deﬁcit.
1, and by 12 percent if b = 10. S. net debt to GDP of 35 percentage points and a depreciation of 15 percent. But even after ﬁfty years the adjustment is far from complete, and the exchange rate is still above its initial level. What should one conclude from these exercises? We conclude that, under the following assumptions—that there are no anticipated changes in z or in α or α*, that investors have been and will be rational (the simulations are carried out under rational expectations), and that there are no surprises—the dollar will depreciate by a large amount, but at a steady and slow rate.
S. S. S. S. goods. S. S. S. goods. The previous equation can be rewritten as 1+ r * E ( X − F ) + D ( E+1 , z+1 ). 5 5. This appears to give a special role to α rather than α*, but in fact this is not the case. A symmetrical expression can be derived with α* appearing instead of α. Put another way, F, α*, and α are not independent. F+1 can be expressed in terms of any two of the three. Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, and Filipa Sa 9 The ﬁrst and last terms on the right-hand side of equation 3 are standard: next-period net debt is equal to this-period net debt times the gross rate of return, plus the trade deﬁcit next period.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2005 (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity) by William C. Brainard, George L. Perry