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Additional resources for Estonia: the transition to a market economy
However, if the government adheres to the currency board and maintains the policy of not fully indexing wages, annual inflation should decline to low double digit or even to single digit levels during 1993. A central question is whether the government will be able to adhere to the strict currency board arrangement. Adopting a currency board demonstrates the government's efforts to introduce strict monetary discipline and reduce inflation to low levels. However, the failure to control budget deficits or enterprise imbalances could still lead to increased bank financing of deficits and losses and a severe crowding out of the emerging private sector.
International Comparison of General Government Operations 22 Table 2-6. Financial Operations of the Social Security Fund, 1990 30 Table 3-1. Current Status of the Legal Framework for a Market Economy 37 Table 3-2. Sources of Foreign Investment as of October 1991 40 Table 3-3. Structure of the Estonian Financial System 50 Table 3-4. Monetary Survey 53 Table 3-5. Assessment of Alternative Restructuring Schemes for the Savings Bank 57 Table 3-6. Average Changes in Retail Prices and Wages, 198991 62 Table 4-1.
The output decline will reduce revenues from income and payroll taxes, and from the value added tax (VAT). At the same time, there will be pressures for increased expenditures on social programs, especially unemployment benefits and retraining. The persistence of unemployment will probably force the government to increase family allowances and other social programs as well, adding a further fiscal burden. Finally, political independence calls for some new administrative expenditures, and financial restructuring is likely to require budgetary support.
Estonia: the transition to a market economy by World Bank